VanEck, a major U.S. asset manager, is currently split in its short-term outlook for Bitcoin and the overall crypto market. While the firm remains cautious on crypto over the next three to six months, it’s signaling a strong “risk-on” sentiment for traditional investments like artificial intelligence (AI) stocks and gold.

According to VanEck’s latest investment note, Bitcoin’s recent price surge has disrupted its usual four-year cycle, making it harder to predict short-term moves. This shift is largely due to new factors like institutional investments, the rise of Bitcoin ETFs, and broader economic trends, rather than just the usual halving events that previously drove market cycles.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $92,000. That’s a 1.8% increase in the last 24 hours, but still down nearly 2% over the past week, based on CoinGecko data.

Rachel Lin, CEO of SynFutures, said the traditional four-year cycle is no longer reliable. Now, big players and macroeconomic trends are playing a bigger role in shaping Bitcoin’s price movements.

Even within VanEck, there isn’t full agreement. While the overall company is taking a cautious stance on crypto, some leaders like Matthew Sigel (Head of Digital Assets Research) and David Schassler (Portfolio Manager) remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s current cycle. This shows that there’s still internal debate about where crypto is headed next.

Meanwhile, investors are shifting how they use crypto in their portfolios. Instead of trying to time the highs and lows of Bitcoin’s cycle, many are adding spot Bitcoin and derivatives as long-term strategic assets. Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, pointed out that investors are now seeing Bitcoin as part of a broader investment plan.

While crypto outlooks remain mixed, VanEck is much more confident about other assets. The firm believes AI-related stocks and gold are solid bets right now. AI stocks, in particular, are looking attractive again after a recent dip from their October highs.

Gold is also gaining attention as a safe-haven asset. VanEck believes global demand—especially from central banks—is pushing gold back into the spotlight as a stable store of value. Even though gold prices are technically high right now, the firm sees any short-term dips as a chance to buy more.

Rachel Lin described gold as less about big returns and more about keeping your money safe during uncertain times. Gracy Chen agreed, saying gold helps stabilize portfolios but added that investors who adjust their exposure based on market moves could see better results.

Gold is currently trading near $4,615—very close to its all-time high. On prediction platform Myriad, 82% of users believe gold will hit $5,000 before Ethereum does. That’s up from 68% just one week ago.

All of this is happening amid rising political uncertainty. A new lawsuit from the Department of Justice against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is raising questions about the independence of the Fed—something that could significantly impact financial markets.

If trust in the Fed weakens, investors may start looking more seriously at non-government-backed assets like Bitcoin and gold. In such a scenario, both could gain even more value as people seek alternatives to traditional currencies and institutions.