The crypto market might be changing, and the old four-year cycle driven by Bitcoin halving events could be losing its power. For years, Bitcoin’s halving—where rewards for mining are cut in half—was seen as the key event that triggered bull runs followed by crashes. But now, experts say the game is changing.

A recent study from Wintermute, a major market maker, says big players like financial institutions are having a bigger influence than before. Products like spot Bitcoin ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) are now pulling money in and out of the market in ways that don’t follow the old halving cycle pattern.

So far this year, Bitcoin is up about 7%, and that small gain has helped boost the entire crypto market. Money is flowing back into top cryptocurrencies, and momentum is building. But there’s a key resistance level that Bitcoin keeps hitting, and traders are watching closely to see if it can finally break through.

Wintermute and NYDIG Research believe this recent price rally isn’t just about investors taking on more risk. They say it’s tied to global events—like rising political tension in the U.S.—and changes in how money moves in and out of crypto.

One big reason for the renewed interest in crypto is growing political uncertainty. Investors are nervous about U.S. politics, including ongoing tensions between Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve. Trump’s attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell over interest rates have raised concerns about inflation, central bank independence, and a weaker U.S. dollar.

Bitcoin stands out because it isn’t controlled by any government. Its fixed supply makes it appealing when people worry about traditional currencies losing value due to poor policy decisions or inflation. As trust in fiat money declines, more people may turn to assets like Bitcoin that can’t be printed or manipulated.

There’s also a larger economic trend helping crypto: global money supply is hitting record highs. This kind of environment usually supports hard assets like Bitcoin and gold. While Bitcoin and gold don’t always move together, both are seen as rare stores of value that exist outside government control.

Another factor helping prices: less selling pressure. At the end of every year, investors often sell underperforming assets to offset gains for tax purposes. That wave of selling usually stops when the new year begins, giving markets some breathing room.

Wintermute also noted a deeper shift in how the crypto market works. Institutional tools like ETFs and trusts are now dominant, especially for large cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. These tools bring in steady investment but don’t spread that money into smaller altcoins like they used to. This change means the typical “altcoin season” pattern—where gains from Bitcoin move into riskier coins—isn’t happening the same way.

Past events have also added pressure. In October, heavy liquidations wiped out traders on some exchanges. These platforms were left holding long positions, which added more selling pressure until they cleared out those trades.

The big question now: Is the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle still valid? Historically, halvings led to price surges followed by wider market booms and busts. But Wintermute believes that pattern may be breaking down. According to their analysis, 2025 didn’t deliver the kind of rally many expected after the last halving. This could mean crypto is becoming a more mature asset class, less driven by speculation.

In previous years, profits from Bitcoin typically flowed into Ethereum, then into mid-sized and small altcoins—a domino effect known as “rotation.” But Wintermute’s trading data shows that this pattern is getting weaker. Retail investors in 2025 focused more on stocks than crypto, especially hot sectors like artificial intelligence, rare earths, and quantum computing.

Looking ahead to 2026, Wintermute thinks the focus will shift away from hype and more toward where capital is moving next. This rotation of money could be a key reason why crypto prices may continue to rise this year.

For the next big breakout to happen, though, institutional demand needs to expand beyond just Bitcoin and Ethereum. ETFs and corporate buyers can’t stick to just a few assets forever. Signs of change are already showing up with new products like spot Solana (SOL) and XRP ETFs starting to trade. More altcoin ETF filings are also moving through the approval process.

Lastly, there’s what’s called the “wealth effect.” When big coins like Bitcoin or Ethereum go up, early investors see profits. Some of that money often flows into smaller altcoins, creating new waves of interest and price growth across the wider crypto market.

In short, crypto is evolving. The old four-year roadmap may no longer apply as new forces shape the way money moves in this space. Institutional investors, political uncertainty, macro trends, and shifting investor behavior are now driving the story—and they may push prices even higher in 2026.