Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs if the U.S. loosens its monetary policy next year, according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes. He believes that more money moving through the financial system could give Bitcoin and other risk assets a strong boost in 2026.

Hayes points to several signs that the U.S. might pump more money into the economy. These include the Federal Reserve possibly expanding its balance sheet by printing more money, mortgage rates dropping as lenders relax their standards, and banks increasing loans to industries backed by government programs. All of this would mean more dollar liquidity—essentially, more cash flowing through the markets—which tends to benefit assets like Bitcoin.

In 2025, Bitcoin dropped by 15%, while gold surged 44%. Meanwhile, tech stocks led the way in the S&P 500, delivering a 25% return compared to the overall market’s 18% gain. Hayes says this shows where money was flowing, not that Bitcoin was no longer valuable. It’s all about where investors see opportunity and where liquidity ends up.

He also pointed out that governments are putting a lot of money into tech projects, especially in artificial intelligence (AI). Both China and the U.S. have used executive orders and public funding to support AI development. This kind of support has helped tech companies attract major investments, even if they’re not making big profits right now.

Hayes mentioned former U.S. President Donald Trump when discussing policy moves that favor AI investments. He believes these policies are one reason why tech-heavy indexes like the Nasdaq did well even as Bitcoin struggled.

On another note, Hayes made a bold claim about military spending. He said the U.S. will continue to use its military power, which requires large-scale production and financing through banks. If banks start funding these big government-backed projects, it could add even more liquidity to the system—again boosting risk assets like Bitcoin.

Recently, U.S. inflation data came in lower than expected, which helped push Bitcoin close to $97,000—a gain of over 5% in just 24 hours. Other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano also saw gains of around 8%. At the same time, bond yields dropped and the U.S. dollar weakened, pushing investors to look for better returns elsewhere.

This pattern is common: when inflation is low, borrowing costs go down and investors are more willing to take risks. Hayes believes that as fiat currencies weaken—due to central banks printing more money—Bitcoin becomes more valuable as a type of “monetary technology.”

However, his view depends on certain conditions. If central banks decide to keep interest rates high or if inflation spikes again, they may tighten policy instead, which could hurt Bitcoin’s chances of rising. For now, Hayes’ forecast is based on one key idea: if there’s more money in the system in 2026, risk assets like Bitcoin could thrive.