Bitcoin has been riding a strong wave recently, marking an impressive seventh consecutive week of gains in 2025. Yet, as prices edge closer to historic highs, analysts are warning of a potential pullback. Here’s a breakdown of the key factors driving both optimism and caution in the crypto market.

Resistance and Institutional Tilts

Despite breaking toward a record high, Bitcoin has encountered significant resistance in the $123,300–$129,700 zone. Analysts highlight this range as a critical pivot where a 20–25% correction could unfold if upward momentum falters. This warning intensifies as over $800 million in long positions were liquidated following a sharp price drop to under $117,000, signaling mounting pressure in the derivatives market.NewsBTCAInvest+1

Simultaneously, institutional sentiment remains strong. The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund recently boosted its Bitcoin holdings by 83%, reinforcing growing confidence among large-scale investors.AInvest

Macro Signals and Technical Patterns

Technical analysts like CasiTrades and Arthur Hayes warn that Bitcoin may have reached a macro top, citing potential ABC corrective wave patterns. If a deeper correction occurs, targets range between $60,000 and $77,000.AInvest+7AInvest+7Investors.com+7

However, there are also bullish indicators. The Realized P&L Ratio—which gauges the value realized by investors—is still within historical norms, suggesting the market’s upswing isn’t yet overheated. In previous cycles, elevated levels of this metric preceded sharp reversals. Its current balance offers hope that the rally could continue sustainably.NewsBTC+1

Key Scenarios Ahead

Bullish Scenario: A clean breakout above the upper resistance could launch Bitcoin toward new all-time highs, fueled by sustained institutional inflows and renewed buying momentum.

Bearish Scenario: If sellers dominate within the $123k–$129k zone, Bitcoin may retrace toward the $80k region—or even deeper—particularly if macroeconomic uncertainties and profit-taking escalate.

Regardless of direction, most analysts concur that volatility remains the norm. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin’s bull run persists or retreats.

This period marks a pivotal test for Bitcoin—where market sentiment, technical levels, and institutional action will ultimately chart its path.