**Bitcoin Bounces Back: Is It Finally Time to Buy?**

Lately, a phrase is making waves among everyday crypto investors: “Making money from KOSPI just to average down on Bitcoin. Sob.” This reflects the frustration many felt after Bitcoin’s sharp drop late last year. But now, things are starting to look a bit better.

After falling hard in the fourth quarter of 2023, Bitcoin is showing signs of life again. It recently surged past $97,000 (about 143 million KRW), giving investors a reason to breathe a little easier. Last November, when it dipped below $80,000, panic spread fast. But with new money flowing into Bitcoin ETFs, some believe the worst may be over.

Still, not everyone is rushing to buy. Bitcoin typically follows a four-year cycle. If that pattern holds, we could still see another decline this year. The big question: Is this year different?

**KOSPI Skyrockets While Crypto Lags Behind**

While Korean stocks (KOSPI) jumped by 75% last year and U.S. stocks and gold also climbed, crypto didn’t keep up. Bitcoin actually ended 2023 down 6.2%, moving in the opposite direction of other major assets.

Early last year, things looked promising. The return of pro-crypto sentiment—especially in the U.S.—gave the market hope. By October, Bitcoin hit a new high above $126,000 on Coinbase. But that rally didn’t last.

Soon after hitting its peak, crypto markets got shaky. A wave of massive sell-offs started in mid-October and lasted through December. Over $6 billion was pulled out from Bitcoin ETFs during this period. Fear took over, and investors started shifting their money into more stable options like stocks.

The biggest scare came from companies known as Digital Asset Treasury firms (DATs) like Strategy and Bitmine. These firms buy crypto to boost their stock prices. When news broke that MSCI might exclude them from major indexes, panic hit the market. DATs are popular with Korean investors, so any trouble with them causes ripple effects. There were even bankruptcy rumors about Strategy at the end of last year.

**JP Morgan Says the Bottom Is In – Big Targets for 2024**

Fast forward to now—things are looking up again. Earlier this month, MSCI decided not to kick out DAT firms from its indexes, calming investor nerves. On February 13th alone, $760 million flowed into Bitcoin ETFs—the most since October.

By mid-February, Bitcoin was up 7.7% for the year, and other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Ripple (XRP), and Solana had jumped more than 10%. Bitcoin even hit $97,900 on February 14th—a two-month high.

With fewer negative headlines and better demand-supply conditions, crypto seems to be back on track. Geopolitical tensions and fears about U.S. monetary policy have also helped push Bitcoin higher, alongside gold.

JP Morgan believes the crypto market bottomed out in January and expects a strong rebound. Strategy even bought $1.2 billion worth of Bitcoin recently, easing concerns about supply pressure.

JP Morgan has set a bold forecast: Bitcoin could hit $170,000 this year. Korean research firm Tiger Research is even more optimistic, predicting $185,500 in Q1 alone. Potential U.S. interest rate cuts and favorable regulations could further fuel growth, especially as traditional finance firms get more involved in crypto.

**Will This Be the Year Crypto Breaks Its Cycle?**

Despite the upbeat mood, some investors are still worried about the famous four-year cycle in crypto markets.

Historically, Bitcoin goes through a cycle tied to its “halving” event—when the reward for mining is cut in half. After halving years (like 2020), prices usually hit new highs the following year (2021), followed by a downturn the next year (2022). Based on that pattern, 2024 could still be a down year.

Another concern: New investment trends like space tech and AI may be pulling money away from crypto. With huge IPOs like SpaceX expected this year, some investors might favor stocks over coins.

And then there’s the macro economy. Right now, stocks are rising because people expect U.S. interest rate cuts. But if those cuts don’t happen—or are fewer than expected—both stocks and crypto could fall again like they did last November.

In summary: Crypto is recovering, investor confidence is growing, and big names like JP Morgan are predicting strong gains for Bitcoin this year. But history and outside risks still hang in the air. Whether Bitcoin breaks its usual cycle or not will depend on market conditions—and maybe a little bit of luck.