Wall Street Near Highs as Fed, Inflation Watch Intensifies
Stocks on Wall Street stayed close to record highs after a massive $15 trillion rally since April, with traders now taking a breather. Investors are watching closely for comments from several Federal Reserve officials and an important inflation report that could impact future rate decisions.
The S&P 500 recorded its 27th all-time high this year but moved only slightly higher. Many believe the recent gains have already factored in good news, like the Fed potentially restarting interest rate cuts.
Experts are urging caution as stock valuations are now much higher than historical averages. UBS’s Mark Haefele says a pause or pullback wouldn’t be surprising after such a strong run-up. Goldman Sachs’ Tony Pasquariello echoed this, saying investors should remain “responsibly bullish” but avoid betting against the momentum of big tech stocks.
In the crypto market, over $1.5 billion in bullish bets were wiped out, showing less appetite for risk. Meanwhile, gold hit a new record high and silver continued its strong 2025 performance, now up over 50% for the year.
The bond market remained calm ahead of key Treasury auctions this week. The U.S. dollar dipped slightly as traders waited for more economic signals.
Looking ahead, investor focus is shifting toward how the Fed might respond to ongoing inflation in 2026. Morgan Stanley suggests if the government continues with pro-growth policies while the Fed cuts rates, corporate earnings could exceed expectations.
Friday’s upcoming inflation report is expected to show that core PCE—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—rose by 0.2% in August, slightly cooler than July’s 0.3%. On an annual basis, core inflation is still expected to be at 2.9%.
Several top Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week, including Chair Jerome Powell. These speeches could provide clues about future rate moves. However, analysts believe Powell will maintain his current stance and not shift his tone significantly.
Economists also expect the PCE report to reflect moderate increases in goods prices due to tariffs and slower inflation in services. Still, labor market data may hold more weight for the Fed’s decisions in the short term.
Investors are now thinking beyond 2025. Key drivers for 2026 will likely include company earnings growth, potential additional Fed rate cuts, and political uncertainty ahead of midterm elections.
At these elevated stock prices, it’s becoming harder for investors to find good value. Experts recommend focusing on specific companies rather than broad market bets.
**Corporate News Highlights:**
– **Oracle** is working on a deal to help recreate and secure TikTok’s U.S. algorithm as part of a plan to transfer ownership to American investors. The company also promoted Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia to co-CEO roles, while Safra Catz becomes vice chair of the board.
– **ASML Holding** got a boost after Morgan Stanley expressed optimism over its AI-driven growth potential.
– **Kenvue Inc.** shares dropped amid concerns that Tylenol’s active ingredient may be linked to autism, according to sources reported by The Washington Post.
– **Pfizer** plans to buy weight-loss startup Metsera for $4.9 billion as it seeks to compete in the growing obesity drug market.
– **T-Mobile** announced COO Srini Gopalan will become CEO in November, replacing Mike Sievert.
– **MetLife** said its private equity and real estate investments are on track to meet Q3 earnings goals for the first time this year.
– **Compass Inc.** will acquire Anywhere Real Estate Inc., forming a residential real estate giant valued at around $10 billion.
– **ODP Corp.**, owner of Office Depot, is being bought by private equity firm Atlas Holdings for about $1 billion.
– **Strive Inc.** plans to acquire Semler Scientific Inc., combining two public firms that hold Bitcoin in their treasuries.
– **Porsche AG** shares fell sharply after cutting back electric vehicle plans, impacting margins and affecting parent company Volkswagen.
– **Roche** reported positive results from its breast cancer drug giredestrant, which helped patients live longer without disease progression.
– **BBVA SA** increased its takeover offer for Banco Sabadell by 10%, attempting to finalize a deal stalled by regulatory issues.
– **Samsung Electronics** surged after reports it received Nvidia approval for its advanced memory chips.
– **BYD Co.** dropped following news that Warren Buffett’s firm sold its stake in the Chinese EV maker.
**Market Snapshot:**
*Stocks:*
– S&P 500: +0.2%
– Nasdaq 100: +0.2%
– Dow Jones: Flat
– Stoxx Europe 600: -0.2%
– MSCI World Index: +0.1%
*Currencies:*
– U.S. Dollar: Slightly down
– Euro: +0.2% at $1.1770
– British Pound: +0.2% at $1.3495
– Japanese Yen: Flat at 147.88 per dollar
*Cryptocurrencies:*
– Bitcoin: -2% at $113,047
– Ether: -6.3% at $4,195
*Bonds:*
– U.S. 10-Year Yield: Steady at 4.14%
– Germany 10-Year Yield: Flat at 2.74%
– UK 10-Year Yield: Down slightly to 4.70%
*Commodities:*
– WTI Crude Oil: -0.3% at $62.50/barrel
– Spot Gold: +1.1% at $3,725.76/ounce
Investors remain cautiously optimistic but are watching economic data closely as they look for new drivers of market momentum heading into 2026.