Is the crypto market in a bull run or a bear market? That’s the question everyone keeps asking. But in 2025, that question might not even matter. The current crypto environment feels like it doesn’t fit either label. Prices aren’t skyrocketing like in 2021, but we’re not seeing the deep drops of a bear market either. So, what’s really going on?

Some analysts believe we’re in a quiet, forgotten part of the crypto cycle — similar to what happened back in 2019. Between July and September of that year, markets were stuck in a calm stretch. The Federal Reserve had just ended quantitative tightening (QT), meaning it stopped pulling money out of the economy. This subtle policy change eventually helped set the stage for the massive bull run of 2020 and 2021.

Fast forward to now, and the Fed is once again ending QT, with the shift expected to take full effect by December 2025. Just like in 2019, liquidity is starting to return to the system, but investor confidence hasn’t caught up yet.

This kind of phase isn’t flashy — it’s not peak bull market excitement or bottom-of-the-barrel despair. It’s that middle area where things seem boring. But historically, this is when smart investors start preparing.

Bitcoin’s current risk score is around 43, almost identical to its level in mid-2019. Ethereum and Cardano are also showing similar risk patterns when compared to past cycles. These scores, based on market volatility and sentiment data, help long-term investors find good entry points instead of chasing hype.

If prices dip slightly — especially if Ethereum or Bitcoin drop back into lower risk zones — that could be a strong opportunity for accumulation. Data from platforms like Glassnode show that during these “mid-cycle” moments, long-term holders tend to increase their positions while short-term traders exit.

Ethereum’s chart even mirrors its 2019 pattern. Back then, it tested its 20-week moving average after QT ended, dropped a bit more, then started a recovery months later. A similar setup is playing out now, suggesting we might be in another quiet buildup phase.

If Ethereum breaks above its 20-week moving average soon, it could signal that we’re moving out of this consolidation phase. If not, we might see a slight market dip — possibly down to a total crypto market cap of $3 trillion from today’s $3.6 trillion — before any major rally begins.

But remember: this isn’t 2019. The crypto world has changed significantly.

In 2025, there’s more regulatory clarity thanks to new laws like the Clarity Act and GENIUS Act. Ethereum ETFs are live. Stablecoins are now regulated. And massive institutions like BlackRock have over $25 billion invested in crypto ETFs.

This kind of institutional support brings stability. Instead of wild swings driven by emotion and speculation, we’re seeing more structured investment strategies based on long-term planning and regulation.

So what does this mean for crypto investors in 2025?

It might not be a bull or bear market — but rather a transition period. A time when macroeconomic changes, like the Fed ending QT and a new chair stepping in by May, start to reshape the market in quieter but powerful ways.

This calm phase could be frustrating for some — slow price movement, low excitement. But just like in 2019, this “boring” stage might be where the next big crypto rally quietly begins to form.

For long-term investors, this could be the perfect time to stay patient, watch for dips, and prepare for what comes next.