Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko has issued a strong warning to the Bitcoin community: it’s time to upgrade security before quantum computers become powerful enough to break it. Speaking at the All-In Summit 2025, Yakovenko said there’s a 50% chance that a major quantum computing breakthrough could happen within the next five years—posing a serious risk to Bitcoin’s current cryptographic protections.

Bitcoin currently relies on elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) to secure wallets and verify transactions. But with the rapid growth of quantum computing, this encryption method could be broken, potentially exposing millions of Bitcoin to theft. The big concern is that AI is speeding up how fast we move from research to real-world applications, meaning the threat could arrive sooner than expected.

Right now, quantum computers have about 1,000 qubits, which isn’t enough to crack Bitcoin’s encryption. However, companies like IBM, Google, Microsoft, and others are racing to develop machines with hundreds of thousands or even millions of qubits in the next decade. Experts believe this level of power could make it possible to break ECC and other commonly used encryption methods.

Cybersecurity researchers estimate that about 30% of all Bitcoin—roughly 6 to 7 million coins worth hundreds of billions of dollars—is still stored in older wallet formats that are more vulnerable to quantum attacks. These include Pay-to-Public-Key and reused Pay-to-Pubkey-Hash addresses that expose public keys on the blockchain. If a powerful enough quantum computer is developed, these wallets could be targeted first.

David Carvalho, CEO of Naoris Protocol and a former ethical hacker, warns that attackers may already be collecting encrypted blockchain data in a strategy called “harvest now, decrypt later.” This means hackers are saving encrypted information today with plans to unlock it once quantum technology catches up.

Some countries are already taking action. In September, El Salvador split its national reserve of 6,284 BTC across 14 different addresses. This move came after expert advice warned against storing large amounts of Bitcoin in single wallets that reveal public keys when used in transactions. Spreading out the coins reduces the risk of losing them in a future quantum attack.

Major financial institutions are also beginning to recognize the threat. BlackRock mentioned quantum computing risks in its Bitcoin ETF filings. Tether’s CEO, Paolo Ardoino, also raised concerns about inactive wallets that haven’t been updated with stronger security measures.

Many experts now believe quantum computers capable of breaking Bitcoin’s encryption could arrive as early as the late 2020s or early 2030s. In fact, back in 2017, researchers like Divesh Aggarwal and Gavin Brennen warned that ECC could be broken by 2027. More recently, Brennen updated his forecast, saying only around one million qubits may be needed—far less than earlier estimates of 10 to 20 million.

French startup Alice & Bob has estimated that just 126,000 physical qubits could be enough to break 256-bit elliptic curve signatures—the very technology that secures Bitcoin transactions today.

John Lilic, an early contributor to Ethereum and CEO of Telos, has even stopped making token deals beyond 2027 or 2028. He believes quantum attacks might first appear harmless—like old wallets suddenly becoming active—before the real damage becomes clear.

The rise of AI is speeding up quantum development even further. Microsoft recently announced chip breakthroughs that suggest quantum computing could be only a few years away—not decades. Amazon and Google are also pushing aggressive timelines for their quantum projects. IBM is planning to build 100,000-qubit processors by the end of the decade, while PsiQuantum aims for one million photonic qubits.

This rapid progress has made it urgent for blockchain networks like Bitcoin to begin upgrading their security systems to use quantum-resistant cryptography. However, updating Bitcoin is not simple. Unlike centralized companies that can change their systems overnight, Bitcoin requires consensus from all users—including those with old or inactive wallets—to make changes through a hard fork.

In 2024, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) finalized three post-quantum digital signature standards: CRYSTALS-Dilithium, FALCON, and SPHINCS+. These new algorithms are designed to be safe from quantum attacks but come with trade-offs. They need larger keys and more processing power, which can slow down transaction speeds and increase energy use for miners.

Because of these challenges, experts recommend a phased approach. One suggestion is using dual-signature systems that combine current ECDSA signatures with post-quantum proofs. This allows Bitcoin to start testing new quantum-safe tools while still working with existing systems until a full transition becomes necessary.

For now, the focus is on preparing defenses and reducing risks—not guessing exactly when quantum threats will become real. But one thing is clear: waiting too long could put billions in digital assets at risk. The time to act is now.